广东经济投资促进会┃Journal of Policy Modeling┃何凌云 林熙 张中祥：逆全球化对中国经济转型的影响：来自制造业出口的证据

暨南大学经济学院何凌云教授、博士生林熙和天津大学马寅初经济学院卓越教授张中祥院长合作的文章“逆全球化对中国经济转型的影响：来自制造业出口的证据”(The impact of de-globalization on China’ economic transformation: evidence from manufacturing export)2020年1月被Elsevier出版社出版的Journal of Policy Modeling接受并在线发表。

中国已经进入经济转型期，所有制结构改革、制造业升级和区域协调发展均为当前经济发展的重点任务。与此同时，全球范围内出现“逆全球化”的趋势，贸易保护主义开始重新抬头。2018年6月，美国宣布“301调查”结果，发布加征关税的产品清单，对原产自中国的产品加征25%关税。此后，中国对同等规模的美国产品加征进口关税，中美贸易战就此打响，双边贸易冲突不断升级。毫无疑问，中美贸易摩擦必将带来诸多贸易不确定性，引致贸易成本提高，从而对企业出口产生不利的影响。因此，在逆全球化的背景下，基于企业出口的视角，贸易成本的上升如何影响中国经济转型是经济发展至关重要、且不可回避的问题。

针对上述问题，本文首先借鉴Cherniwchan（2017）的方法，结合关税变化和地理贸易成本，测算特定的制造业部门和省份的贸易成本。其次，采用中国制造业企业数据以及Heckman（1979）两步法，实证考察贸易成本对异质性企业出口（包括出口行为和出口规模）的差异化影响。最后，在此基础上，进一步识别贸易成本上升对中国经济转型的潜在影响，并探讨相关的政策启示。

研究结果表明，贸易成本的上升会对中国经济转型产生不利的影响。具体而言，贸易成本的上升阻碍企业进入出口市场，并通过影响企业出口和内销的决策来减小出口规模。对于不同的所有制类型、制造业部门和区域的企业，贸易成本上升的影响均存在异质性，从而间接影响中国的所有制结构改革、制造业升级和区域协调发展。特别地，虽然贸易成本的上升不会显著地影响中国各区域间的协调发展，但不利于所有制结构改革和制造业升级。

本文的创新点主要体现以下方面。首先，结合国外关税变化和地理贸易成本，综合测算中国企业面临的贸易成本。其次，从所有制类型、制造业部门和区域视角，揭示贸易成本对不同类型企业出口的异质性影响以及交互影响。第三，基于异质性企业出口的视角对贸易成本上升如何影响中国经济转型提供了首个实证证据。在当前逆全球化的背景下，研究结果对如何促进企业出口和经济转型具有一定的政策启示。

1979年创刊、被EconLit/SSCI收录的Journal of Policy Modeling经济学期刊是Society for Policy Modeling会刊，多位诺贝尔经济学奖得主兼任其顾问委员会委员。自1996年7月第一篇文章被接受起，张中祥教授在该刊已发表6篇文章。同时，张中祥教授以“气候变化和能源政策”为专题曾为该刊主编了一期特刊，收录了包括威尼斯大学校长Carlo Carraro教授, MIT斯隆商学院Henry Jacoby教授, 美国经济学会前会长、哈佛大学经济系Dale Jorgenson教授, 澳大利亚国立大学Warwick McKibbin教授, 普林斯顿大学Stephen Pacala教授, MIT斯隆商学院John Reilly教授, 普林斯顿大学Robert Socolow教授, Energy Economics主编Richard Tol教授等世界顶尖学者在该领域的最新研究成果。该特刊收录于该刊2009年31卷、第3期、359-477页。

The impact of de-globalization on China’ economic transformation:

evidence from manufacturing export

Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 42, 2020

Ling-Yun He, Xi Lin, ZhongXiang Zhang*

Abstract

The economic transformation is an important policy practice of economic development in China. In the context of “deglobalization”, it is critically important to better understand the impacts of increasing trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports. In this study, we measure the trade costs of specific manufacturing sectors and provinces. We employ Heckman (1979) two-stage method and the data from China’s manufacturing firms to investigate the impacts of trade costs on heterogeneous firms’ exports. Based on these results, we further explore the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation and discuss policy advisories. Our results indicate that the increase in trade costs have adverse impacts on China’s economic transformation. Specifically, increasing trade costs hinder firms’ export behaviors and export scales. However, these impacts are heterogeneous on different types of firms, which refers to the ownership reforms, manufacturing sector upgrades and coordinated regional development. In particular, increasing trade costs do not affect coordinated regional development in China, but they are not conducive to ownership reforms and manufacturing sector upgrades. Altogether, our findings provide the first evidence on the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports, and also shed light on policy implications for promoting firms’ exports and economic transformation in the “deglobalization” period.

JEL classification

F13, F14, O24, O53, P33

Keywords

Trade costs, Firms’ exports, Economic transformation, Heterogeneous firms

He, L., Lin, X. and Z.X. Zhang* (2020), The impact of de-globalization on China’ economic transformation: evidence from manufacturing export, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 42.

https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0161893820300077

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.02.001

张中祥教授为Journal of Policy Modeling主编的特刊和在上面发表的文章：

特刊

Zhang, Z.X. (2009, Guest Editor), Climate Change and Energy Policy, Special Issue of Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 359-477.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-policy-modeling/vol/31/issue/3

文章

Zhang, Z.X. (1998), Macroeconomic Effects of CO2 Emission Limits: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for China, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 213-250.

Zhang, Z.X. (2002), The Economic Effects of An Alternative EU Emissions Policy, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 24, pp. 667-677.

Zhang, Z.X. (2004), Meeting the Kyoto Targets: The Importance of Developing Country Participation, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 3-19.

Zhang, Z.X. (2009), An Economic Model-based Analysis of Climate and Energy Policy, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 359-361.

Wu, L., Li, J. and Z.X. Zhang* (2013), Inflationary Effect of Oil-price Shocks in an Imperfect Market: A Partial Transmission Input-output Analysis, Journal  of Policy Modeling, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 354-369.

Zhu, L., Zhang*, Z.X. and Y. Fan (2015), Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty: How to Make Informed Decisions?, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 37, No. 5, pp. 742-762.