题目：“经济学系列讲座”第45期 Demand Estimation With Foldable Menu:A Case Study of China’s Tobacco Industry
主讲人：Hui Liu 加拿大多伦多大学经济系
Information about product availabilities is necessary for the demand estimation of products with varying availabilities, but such data is not always observable. When firmsendogenously choose product assortments to maximize expected profit, we can recover unobservable product availabilities from firms’ profit maximization conditions. Searching for optimal (profit-maximizing) assortment can be very time-consuming because the total number of assortments increases exponentially with the number of products. I show that firms only need to choose from a foldable menu, where in the number of assortments equals the number of products. I provide an empirical application of the foldable menu model on China’s tobacco industry. My results show that ignoring varying product availabilities leads to underestimated price elasticity and thus false tax policy implications. Making all cigarettes available has positive effects on consumer welfare and cigarette sales but negatively affects wholesale profits.
Hui Liu is a Ph.D. candidate in economics from the University of Toronto.His research interests are in industrial organization, applied microeconomics and econometrics. His current research focuses on random coefficient demand estimation of products with varying availabilities.