题目：“经济学系列讲座”第44期 China's Vehicle License Allocations and Electric Vehicle Adoption
主讲人：Yujie Lin 美国马里兰大学
Restricting access to owning a scarce resource imposes costs on consumers. Many megacities in China use lotteries and auctions to allocate vehicle licenses and restrict vehicle ownership, making people wait several years for a license. Recently, to promote electric vehicles, some cities introduced a separate system for electric vehicle licenses with shorter expected wait times. This paper estimates a structural model to quantify the welfare effects of vehicle license allocation and its impact on electric vehicle adoption. The implicit cost of purchasing vehicles imposed by vehicle license allocations is estimated to be about 10 percent of the vehicle price. The lower waiting cost of purchasing electric vehicles increases electric vehicle sales considerably. Moreover, vehicle ownership restrictions engendered a consumer welfare loss of 26-52 billion Yuan in Beijing and Shanghai from 2013 to 2017, of which about 10 percent was due to the waiting cost. However, vehicle ownership restrictions also reduced automobile externalities, offsetting more than 80 percent of the consumer welfare loss.
Yujie Lin is a Ph.D. candidate in resource and environmental economics from the University of Maryland. Her research focuses on empirical industrial organization, environmental economics, and transportation economics. Her publications appear in Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (JAERE) and《管理世界》。