“经济学系列讲座”第22期：The real demand for global and local environmental protection – experimental evidence from climate change mitigation in Beijing

【题目】The real demand for global and local environmental protection – experimental evidence from climate change mitigation in Beijing

【时间】2017年9月15日14:00-15:30

【地点】天津大学25楼A座3层B教室

【主讲人】Andreas Loschel 德国国家工程院院士，德国明斯特大学能源与资源经济学讲席教授、应用经济学研究中心主任，德国能源转型监督专家委员会主席

【主持人】张中祥 天津大学马寅初经济学院院长、卓越教授，国家能源、环境和产业经济研究院院长

报告人简介

Andreas Loschel holds a chair for Energy and Resource Economics at the University of Münster and is Director of the Centre of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM) since 2014. Since 2011, he chairs the Energy Expert Commission of the German Government to monitor the energy transformation, and since 2017 he directs the Virtual Institute Smart Energy North Rhine-Westphalia. He has served as Lead Author in the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2010-2014). He is a member of the German National Academy of Science and Technology (acatech). His research interests are in applied microeconomics, energy economics and the economics of climate change. His publications appear in Canadian Journal of Economics, Ecological Economics, Economica, Energy Economics, Energy Journal, Environmental and Resource Economics, European Economics Review, Journal of Public Economics, PNAS, Resource and Energy Economics, Review of World Economics. He is on the editorial boards of Climate Policy, Energy Journal and Economics E-Journal, and edited special issues for Economica, Energy Policy, Energy Economics, and Resource and Energy Economics. In the Ranking of Economists of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (F.A.Z.) he was several times among the 50 most influential economists in Germany.

报告简介

In this study, the real demand for global and local environmental protection in Beijing/China is investigated. Participants from Beijing were offered the opportunity to contribute to voluntary climate change mitigation by purchasing permits from Chinese CO2 emissions trading schemes (ETS). Purchased permits were withdrawn from the ETS. Since CO2 emissions are inevitably linked to emissions of local pollutants the objective of our study is to disentangle the real demand for global and for local environmental protection. For this purpose, Beijing and Shenzhen ETS permits were offered. The result is that for low prices the demand for Beijing ETS permits is higher than for Shenzhen ETS permits indicating real demand for local environmental protection. Our research identifies the important role of private benefits, with climate change mitigation as an impure public good, in the voluntary provision of public goods and provides first evidence for China.

张中祥教授附言

自己2001年任职荷兰格罗宁根大学法学院和经济学院时非常荣幸与10位欧美顶级环境与资源经济学家应邀参加庆祝欧洲环境和资源经济学家学会理事长Klaus Conrad教授60岁生日和德国欧洲经济研究中心(ZEW)成立十周年学术报告会。后来我们的报告修改后集结成书Empirical Modeling of the Economy and the Environment，由德国Springer-Verlag出版社出版。

Andreas Loschel当时在Conrad教授指导下在曼海姆大学读经济学博士，负责会议的后勤与接待工作。交谈时，Andreas讲他读了我2000年发表在国际经济学领域最悠久的杂志Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv - Review of World Economics上的文章，非常希望能够合作发表一篇高水平的文章。他讲的我那篇文章(Estimating the Size of the Potential Market for the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms，136卷, 第 3期, 491-521页)最初是1998年应亚洲开发银行(ADB)的委托为培训ADB发展中国家的谈判代表(时任国家发展和改革委员会马爱民处长也参加了ADB组织的培训班讨论会)而准备的报告“预测京都议定书框架下三种弹性机制的市场规模”。根据自己建立的12个国家和地区的全球模型,首次预测了《京都议定书》授权的排放贸易、联合履约和清洁发展机制三种灵活机制的市场规模,并把中国与其他发展中国家作用分离开来，首次预测出2010年中国在清洁发展机制市场上占60%份额。根据这个预测结果，NGOs把Clean Development Mechanism(清洁发展机制)昵称为China Development Mechanism(中国发展机制)。这个预测结果与后来实际情况基本一致。像这种口袋里能拿到银子、报告有政策价值同时最后经过修改的报告能发到国际一流经济学期刊的咨询工作是可遇而不可求。

之后，Andreas和我运用一般均衡、博弈论和不完全竞争理论，对美国撤出《京都议定书》以及随后达成的《波恩政治协议》和《马拉喀什协定》的经济和环境影响做了深入的经济学分析，合作的论文2002年也发表在Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv - Review of World Economics上。那期(2002年第四期)作为最后一期期刊的德文名在前、英文名在后，也挺有历史意义。自2003年第一期起，期刊名采用Review of World Economics - Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv，英文名在前，德文名在后。该杂志由德国基尔世界经济研究主办，但运作独立，主编和编委会由国际经济学领域著名学者担任。该国际经济学杂志是小刊物，一年4期，每期就几篇文章，非常难发。

这几年，Andreas常来中国。每次来访都联系访问我们学部，碰巧我都不在。这次在我们学部报告后，2017年9月17日在《北京洪堡论坛》我们共同组织Implementing the Paris Agreement – The Role of the European Union and China主题论坛，来自德国欧洲经济研究中心、国家发展和改革委员会气候战略中心和对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院等单位的智囊和学者应邀在会上发言，并与与会代表进行交流和讨论。